A comparison of the ADO, BODE and DOSE scores for predicting respiratory hospitalisations in a primary care COPD Cohort

Conference: 
SAPC ASM 2016 - Dublin
Talk Code: 
P2.12
Presenter: 
Andy Dickens
Co-authors: 
Rachel Jordan, Alexandra Enocson, David Fitzmaurice, Alice Sitch, Peymane Adab
Author institutions: 
University of Birmingham (Institute of Applied Health Research)

Problem

Several multidimensional prognostic indices (PI) for COPD have been developed, mostly based on patients with moderate/severe COPD. The Birmingham COPD Cohort study will examine the validity of these indices in a primary care COPD population. We use preliminary data to determine the predictive ability of selected PIs in relation to self-reported respiratory hospitalisations.

Approach

Baseline data from 663 participants of the Birmingham COPD cohort study were used to calculate scores of 3 PIs (ADO, BODE, DOSE). The c statistic was derived to compare their discrimination in predicting risk of respiratory hospitalisation at 1 and 2 years.

Findings

According to c statistic estimates, ADO was better at predicting 1-year respiratory hospitalisations (C=0.81; 95% CI 0.75 to 0.88) than DOSE (C=0.73, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.81) and BODE (C=0.75, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.83). The same pattern was observed for 2-year respiratory hospitalisations. All scores were better at predicting hospitalisations than their component parts.

Consequences

The data suggest that ADO could be a useful tool for identifying those at higher risk of respiratory hospitalisations. The analyses will be repeated on the complete sample once data is available.

Submitted by: 
Andy Dickens
Funding acknowledgement: 
This abstract summarises independent research funded by the NIHR under its Programme Grants for Applied Research Programme (Grant Reference Number RP-PG-0109-10061). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or Department of Health. The Birmingham COPD Cohort study is part of the Birmingham Lung Improvement StudieS – BLISS.